StockBB Market Blog Digest http://stockbb.net and Kick Ass with Penny Stock Thu, 20 Nov 2008 04:29:33 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.2 en Part 2 - ultra short ETFs at a tipping point? http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/part-2-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/part-2-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/#comments Thu, 20 Nov 2008 02:26:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-7515876071531732438 quick post where I mentioned that most of the ProShares ultra short ETFs were exhibiting the same chart pattern and that they seemed to be at a tipping point. More accurately, I pointed out that there were two conflicting patterns emerging and it was difficult to know which would emerge the winner.

When the post appeared in Seeking Alpha, I was taken to task for not providing an analysis of the underlying index. Many of those who commented correctly pointed out that the ultra short ETFs move in reaction to the associated index; thus, it is misleading to attempt to chart the ETFs themselves.

The ETF that was discussed in the previous post was the Ultra Short QQQ (QID). At the time (Friday, 11/14) there was a potential bearish head and shoulders developing. On the other hand, the ETF had also bounced off its 50-day moving average and was then above its 20-day moving average.

Looking at the NASDAQ 100, last Friday it was still hanging onto a support level but still appeared to be trending down. On the other hand, it was also showing a potential double bottom.

Today it looks like the chart patterns were resolved. The NAS dived and QID jumped. Though many money managers have been quoted as saying that we had seen the market lows for the year back in October, looking at the chart of the NASDAQ it was apparent that it was not bouncing back from its recent retests of those lows. The chart of QID, though, showed that jump back above its 20-day MA and it reinforced the idea that the NASDAQ should be approached with caution.

If things play out the way they did in October, we could see maybe a further 4% or 5% downside in the NASDAQ and then a 15% to 20% rally that would take the index back up to its 20-day MA.

And then we get to do the whole thing over again...

Disclosure: long QID
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/part-2-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/feed/ Top 3 Stocks : XTLB, SEWC, BCND http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/top-3-stocks-xtlb-sewc-bcnd/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/top-3-stocks-xtlb-sewc-bcnd/#comments Wed, 19 Nov 2008 21:00:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36462406.post-4028748798699091641 The following are the Top 3 Stocks as of Wednesday, November 19, 2008 3:00:10 PM

#1 Stock is XTLB
XTLB chart

#2 Stock is SEWC
SEWC chart

#3 Stock is BCND
BCND chart

]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/19/top-3-stocks-xtlb-sewc-bcnd/feed/ Top 3 Stocks : XTLB, PURO, LBSU http://stockbb.net/2008/11/18/top-3-stocks-xtlb-puro-lbsu/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/18/top-3-stocks-xtlb-puro-lbsu/#comments Tue, 18 Nov 2008 21:00:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36462406.post-4509756781658320972 The following are the Top 3 Stocks as of Tuesday, November 18, 2008 3:00:09 PM

#1 Stock is XTLB
XTLB chart

#2 Stock is PURO
PURO chart

#3 Stock is LBSU
LBSU chart

]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/18/top-3-stocks-xtlb-puro-lbsu/feed/ Industrial Production - tech rolls over, too http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/industrial-production-tech-rolls-over-too/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/industrial-production-tech-rolls-over-too/#comments Tue, 18 Nov 2008 00:37:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-791672332441221741
Below we show a chart of Industrial Production for the sub-category of Computers and Peripheral Equipment. There is a clear drop off in production. In terms of percentage change, the current down-trend is not huge. What is disturbing is that typically the months of September and October show growth as manufacturers of computers and peripherals build inventory for the holiday shopping season. Here we see the opposite effect: rather than growth we have a decline. The numbers for the semiconductor sector look pretty much the same.

Industrial Production - Computers, 11-2008
The next chart comes from the Federal Reserve. It includes Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for high tech industries.

Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization - Tech, 11-2008There are some interesting features in this chart. For one, technology has held up quite well compared to many other industry sectors. Take a look at the chart below that presents Consumer Durables, Industrial Materials, Business Equipment and a few others. Those sectors look like they are plummeting while Tech looks like it is merely encountering a slowdown.

Tech Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, 11-2008It is undeniable that Tech is facing a serious slowdown. Witness the downbeat guidance from Cisco. The there was the surprise announcement from Intel that they expected revenue to come in $1 billion below forecasts.

Still technology seems to be in much better shape than some other industries. Comparisons to the 2001-to-2003 tech crash do seem unwarranted. Though production is slowing, tech capacity utilization is far above what was seen after the Internet bubble burst.

As I have suggested in a prior post, large cap tech could be the sector that leads stocks out of this bear market. Tech seems to be down but not dead. As we have rotated out of the leaders of the last bull market - financial and commodity stocks - investors are likely to embrace a completely different sector. Technology's latent strength makes it a good candidate.
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/industrial-production-tech-rolls-over-too/feed/ Top 3 Stocks : PURO, LBSU, NTNI http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/top-3-stocks-puro-lbsu-ntni/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/top-3-stocks-puro-lbsu-ntni/#comments Mon, 17 Nov 2008 21:00:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36462406.post-312845698779146193 The following are the Top 3 Stocks as of Monday, November 17, 2008 3:00:10 PM

#1 Stock is PURO
PURO chart

#2 Stock is LBSU
LBSU chart

#3 Stock is NTNI
NTNI chart

]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/17/top-3-stocks-puro-lbsu-ntni/feed/ Weekly review - consumers cut back and stocks get cheaper http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/weekly-review-consumers-cut-back-and-stocks-get-cheaper/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/weekly-review-consumers-cut-back-and-stocks-get-cheaper/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 14:12:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-5526356635397092281
As I wrote in an earlier post this weekend, companies and economic reports were pretty consistent in declaring that the U.S. consumer is toast. Retail sales were off sharply, Best Buy and other retailers reduced their outlooks. Even Wal-Mart, one of the few companies that seems to be navigating this downturn successfully, predicted results would be slightly under previous guidance. Intel also reduced their near-term outlook and analysts rushed to reduce estimates on all the companies in the PC food chain. Dell got hammered as did Microsoft. Nokia also chimed in by announcing a softening in the cell phone market and Qualcomm and other component makers slid in sympathy. Circuit City declared bankruptcy. Jobless numbers crossed the threshold over 500,000, a number that typically is seen during recessions. Markets sold off this week, rallied strongly on Thursday in the face of the worst news and then sold off again on Friday.

The end results of all this were sizeable losses for all the major stock averages, ranging from a loss of 5% on the Dow to a loss of 9.7% on the Russell 2000. Predictably, the stock market statistics we gather every weekend reflected a second week of declining strength.

TradeRadar Alert HQ Stock Market Statistics --

Each week our Alert HQ process scans over 7200 stocks and ETFs and records their technical characteristics. Primarily we look for BUY and SELL signals for our free stock alerts; however, we also summarize the data in order to gain insights in the week's market action. The following chart is based on daily data and, messy as it is, presents the state of our technical indicators:

Stock market statistics, 11-14-2008As you can see, the indicators are a mess. I'll quickly run through them:
  • Moving averages -- the number of stocks above the 20-day MA fell by roughly 2000 this past week. The number of stocks above their 50-day MA fell noticeably as well. Implication: bearish
  • Number of stocks whose 20-day MA is above their 50-day MA -- since we started tracking this indicator we have never seen it zig-zag within just a few weeks. It has tended to move slowly and smoothly. Ominously, after starting to move up, this indicator turned back down this week. It is difficult to see in the chart above but it is much clearer in the chart below. Implication: bearish
  • Aroon Analysis -- we use Aroon to measure whether stocks are in strong up-trends or down-trends. The number of stocks in down-trends jumped up by about 1400 this week. The number of stocks in up-trends fell by several hundred from an already very low number to end up well under 1000. Implication: bearish
  • Chaiken Money Flow -- this indicator tends to stay very smooth and flat. Along with everything else, it has turned down. Implication: bearish
The next chart presents the moving average analysis for the entire market in a simpler, cleaner manner and contrasts it with the performance of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY).

SPY versus market moving averages
When the number of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (the yellow line) crosses the line that tracks the number of stocks whose 20-day moving average is above their 50-day moving average (the magenta line) you will get a change in the trend of the S&P 500.

Note that a cross-over in the bullish direction took place about three weeks ago and thus far it remains intact but has been weakening rapidly. We are very close to registering a clear bearish signal.

We have maintained over the last few weeks that a tradeable rally had been underway and we originally expected the S&P 500, for example, to at least approach its 50-day moving average. Instead, it penetrated the 20-day MA and promptly fell back. The 20-day MA now presents resistance. According the chart above, the rally may still be alive since we have managed to avoid making significant new lows. Still, things are looking very shaky. At best, we are making a sloppy bottom. At worst, we are setting up for a further drift downward.

Conclusion --

Looking at our stock market statistics based on daily data, pretty much everything is pointing in a bearish direction. Economic reports are doing nothing to paint a picture supporting higher stock prices. With the kind of wacky market we have seen these last few months, however, that probably means stocks are ready to rally.

So what is going on that might move investors one way or the other?

The G-20 met in Washington this weekend and so far nothing has come of it. The bailout for automakers is meeting resistance among Republicans who want to avoid throwing good money after bad. This implies one of the Big 3 might sooner of later declare bankruptcy and that would certainly cause a quake in the market.

There are a good number of economic reports due this week. We will see the NY Empire State Index, Industrial Production, PPI, building permits, CPI, housing starts, initial jobless claims, leading indicators and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.

Lest we forget, earnings season grinds on though at a slower pace. As if we didn't get enough bad news this past week, we have another bunch of retailers who will report this week. Investors will probably have to hold their noses as they review these numbers, too.

So the week that is upon us has plenty of opportunity to disappoint based on economic reports. Stocks have held above recent lows but that doesn't mean they can continue to do so.

Is seems the only argument for buying stocks is that they are cheap. This begs two questions: are they cheap enough and will they get cheaper still?
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/weekly-review-consumers-cut-back-and-stocks-get-cheaper/feed/ Free Stock Alerts - Alert HQ for Nov 14, 2008 http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/free-stock-alerts-alert-hq-for-nov-14-2008/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/free-stock-alerts-alert-hq-for-nov-14-2008/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 13:45:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-8856458184505234371 Alert HQ. Each week we scan over 7200 stocks and ETFs looking for fresh BUY and SELL signals. We apply a combination of proprietary and standard technical analysis techniques to identify those stocks that are beginning to move. Our goal is to identify stocks or ETFs that are undergoing reversals, either to the upside or to the downside.

This week made it tough to find winners. Companies and economic reports were pretty consistent in declaring that the U.S. consumer is toast. Retail sales were off sharply, Best Buy and other retailers reduced their outlooks (even Wal-Mart did!). Intel also reduced their near-term outlook and analysts rushed to reduce estimates on all the companies in the PC food chain. Circuit City declared bankruptcy. Jobless numbers crossed the threshold over 500,000. Markets sold off this week, rallied strongly on Thursday in the face of the worst news and then sold off again on Friday.

Against this uncertain and crazy backdrop, we see the number of signals in either direction dwindling. Here is the breakdown for this week:
  • based on daily data, we have 12 BUY signals and 3 SELL signals
  • based on weekly data, we have 9 BUY signals and 8 SELL signals
Stop by Alert HQ and download your free lists. The alerts based on weekly data show those stocks that have exhibited some good follow-through after a recent trend reversal. If you want to be early in identifying the newest trend reversals, the lists based on daily data are for you. No matter which preference you have, there are bound to be a few stocks you will want to add to your watch list.
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/free-stock-alerts-alert-hq-for-nov-14-2008/feed/ Trend Leaders - the free list of stocks for Nov 14, 2008 http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/trend-leaders-the-free-list-of-stocks-for-nov-14-2008/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/trend-leaders-the-free-list-of-stocks-for-nov-14-2008/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 13:19:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-5314782437976108366 Trend Leaders, our latest list of stocks in strong up-trends, is now available at the TradeRadar site.

Readers of the TradeRadar blog are familiar with the Alert HQ free lists of stock alerts. With Alert HQ, we try to identify those stocks and ETFs that are making reversals. Every week we scan all the stocks listed on the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ, over 7200 securities in all, to find those stocks or ETFs that are generating actionable BUY signals or SELL signals.

As a byproduct of the Alert HQ process we are providing a list of all the stocks or ETFs that are currently in strong up-trends. We call them Trend Leaders and the list is, of course, absolutely free.

This is our second week offering a list of Trend Leaders. Last week there were 113 stocks on it and we were hopeful that the market was at the early stages of a tradeable rally. This week there are only 37 stocks left on the list and the potential for a rally is questionable. Still, this week we are able to list a good number of stocks that have been able to maintain strong technical characteristics.

In the spirit of constant improvement, I have also created a list of Trend Leaders based on weekly data (I have been using daily data for the other lists). To my surprise, not one stock showed up on the list! This must be what it means to be in a bear market...

In the meantime, TrendLeaders presents those stocks that are bucking the down trend. If your investing style is dependent on trending and momentum, you should be able to easily find a few stocks to add to your watch list or your portfolio.

You can read more and download the free list at the TradeRadar Trend Leaders page.
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/15/trend-leaders-the-free-list-of-stocks-for-nov-14-2008/feed/ Chart review - ultra short ETFs at a tipping point? http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/chart-review-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/chart-review-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/#comments Sat, 15 Nov 2008 02:07:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2315459179820712081.post-2324527180616805781
Almost all of them are carving out charts with the same characteristics. I've made some rough (very rough!) notations on the chart of the Ultra Short QQQ ETF (QID) below. There are two interesting formations playing out simultaneously:
  1. A head-and-shoulders is forming. I have pointed out the head and both shoulders in the chart below with the big red sloppy letters S and H and S. This chart formation carries bearish implications for this ETF.
  2. Moving averages tell a different story. It is clear that both the 20-day and 50-day moving averages are well above the 200-day moving average. Recent action shows the ETF staying above its 20-day MA until October 27. At that point it fell below the 20-day and soon bounced off the 50-day MA and closed the week once again above the 20-day MA. I have underlined in blue where QID bounced off the 50-day. This successful test of the 50-day and retaking of the 20-day is potentially bullish.

Chart of QID, 11-14-2008
Conclusion --

Two chart formations presaging completely different outcomes.

If QID drops below its 50-day MA it completes the head-and-shoulders and the assumption is that the ETF could drop another 20 or 25 points.

On the other hand, the latest price action has kept the price of QID above the 20-day MA despite a big down day for the ETF on Thursday. Also implying further gains is MACD where the histogram has just crossed zero in the positive direction. DMI is also looking pretty decent.

As I mentioned above, nearly all of the ultra short ETFs are looking very similar. Further substantial gains in these ETFs, though, would require that stocks finally break below the October lows. Economic reports seem to be conspiring to drive stocks down but investors are hanging in there and keeping the major averages from taking another leg down.

For these ETFs, it seems we are at a turning point. Which way do you think they're going?

Disclosure: long QID
]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/chart-review-ultra-short-etfs-at-a-tipping-point/feed/ Top 3 Stocks : GRDO, CENV, PURO http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/top-3-stocks-grdo-cenv-puro/ http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/top-3-stocks-grdo-cenv-puro/#comments Fri, 14 Nov 2008 21:00:00 +0000 admin tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36462406.post-8541541111700408237 The following are the Top 3 Stocks as of Friday, November 14, 2008 3:00:09 PM

#1 Stock is GRDO
GRDO chart

#2 Stock is CENV
CENV chart

#3 Stock is PURO
PURO chart

]]> http://stockbb.net/2008/11/14/top-3-stocks-grdo-cenv-puro/feed/